Starting with high enthusiasm we have the green and blue lines, for me these applies often to projects that have lots of other people involved. At the start there's lots of enthusiasm for the new idea, you share visions and concepts and discuss big picture stuff. Then your project moves in to development and you slump to a mid level, you're still excited about the end results and what you'll be able to do, but you seem to spend your life in meetings discussing nitty gritty.
Then the lines diverge, the green line plummets as you realise that your amazing idea has been committee'd to death and your vision is now a lowest common denominator. Motivation goes through the floor and the project either dies or lingers around hoping for a version 2 release that will do all the amazing stuff you previously dreamed of.
More optimistically your project finishes and you have a burst of enthusiasm (hopefully accompanied by a celebration of some sorts, be it a pay rise, a party or just a drink in the pub). Your enthusiasm probably decreases gradually over time, but it's a natural aging process which can be bumped up again by the smallest of things, a nice email from a user, or a throw-away remark about how well things went.
The other style of curve is shown in the red and purple lines, I more commonly follow these tracks for personal projects. You start off with an inkling of an idea that matures slowly in your brain until you reach a peak, maybe you talk to someone else about it who enthuses, or you just kick yourself into giving it a shot. Your enthusiasm takes a big hit as you're forced to deal with details, often something to do with money, paperwork or permissions.
Red is danger here, this is a project that crashes and burns. All your enthusiasm and plottings just sort of cave in around you, maybe you lose confidence in your abilities (rightly or wrongly), maybe you are let down by other people, maybe what you wanted to do just isn't possible. For whatever reason your project just never gets off the ground. You struggle along for a little while, but eventually give up and declare it dead, leaving your enthusiasm at an all time low, with no motivation for starting another project.
Purple here though is positive, Eventually you force your way through the hastles and can actually get on with what you want to do. Enthusiasm rises and with a bit of luck and effort, continues to rise as you watch your vague idea develop into something wonderful. The great thing about a project that works like this is that even if it has an end point your enthusiasm afterwards can be even higher (a holiday for example when you can look at the photos). You're a lot more likely to repeat the process all over again with a little more experience and knowledge, making the slump less slumpy.
Of course knowing what these curves look like doesn't really help you identify what colour your current project is, or even that you're not on another curve all together, maybe there's an option on the red curve that if you stick with the really depressing bit long enough it will pick up and go through the roof. But if you're bleeding money and energy into a project that seems to be going nowhere, there's not necessarily any comfort in looking that far ahead.
The advice I'd give is that for whatever the outcome of your project it's valuable to look back and consider these curves. When you're in a slump, look back on previous successful projects and remember that you came out ahead in the end. If your project fails work out why it did and make a mental note to not fall into the same trap in the future. Learn your own personal signs for a failing project and react to either avoid the pit falls or get out faster before your future enthusiasm and confidence take a permanent hit.
And if you work out how to actually do that, let me know ;0)
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